May 08 2008
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Exploring the Myths of Energy Independence – Part 4
We Can Go It Alone
Considering America’s dependence on imported oil, it’s logical to assume that if we were able to reduce this dependence any sacrifices made would be worth it when we start to enjoy a newfound immunity to the nastiness in the world oil markets. Saudi Arabia can cut its production. Hugo Ch?vez can sell his oil to China. We wouldn’t have to care.
No country can strive to improve its energy security alone, however. It’s true that cutting our oil consumption would help a lot. Our air and water would be cleaner and even noise pollution would decrease. Our own reductions wouldn’t really do much to change the rest of the world, though.
Though America is the biggest user of oil, the price we pay is determined by global demand. This demand is being driven mainly by Asia and they are all too happy to burn any barrel we might manage to conserve. Also, any shift to alternative energy sources will take years to make happen. Our car fleet turns over at just eight percent a year. That is how fast consumers can afford to buy new cars and manufacturers can afford to make them. This means that it would still take 12 years to see a greener fleet.
Most forecasts don’t acknowledge how slowly changes like this could actually happen. Yes, if the United States could cut its oil consumption initially by 9 million barrels (or 6.5 million barrels, or even 3.6 million barrels) it would have a massive impact on oil prices. Demand is not likely to drop this quickly, though…so instead our demand reductions will be slow and probably canceled out by demand growth in other countries like China.
The only way to achieve actual energy security is to redesign the energy economy of the entire world. Oil prices won’t go down, evil regimes won’t go bankrupt, and sustainability won’t happen until worldwide oil demand is decreased. Barring a global economic meltdown, the only way it will happen is if the tools we use to improve our own security can be also utilized in other countries.
It’s time to focus on an energy economy that is global and is compatible with places where natural resources may be strained, governments may be poor, and consumers don’t have access to quick credit.
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