Russia’s Return – Things to Watch

Russia’s attack on Georgia last month begins a dangerous new era. A new era in which Russia is determined that she will become an energy superpower in a world where the entire world is desperate for energy.

Almost all of Russia’s oil originates from the Baku region on the western portion of the Caspian Sea. The Baku-Supsa oil pipeline goes right through Georgia. Until last month, this pipeline transported oil that was free from Russia control. Since Russia’s invasion of Georgia, however, this is no longer the situation. Russia now controls the oil and gas surging through these pipelines.

Russia’s attack was shrewdly and meticulously planned for a long time. This was not a spur-of-the moment attack by any means. The sheer magnitude of the attack makes this abundantly clear.

Here’s an interesting quote of Vladimir Putin that provides valuable insight into his motives and goals. He has said that the breakup of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century.” Obviously, his goal is to resurrect the Soviet empire. Let us not forget that even Hitler warned the world of exactly what he was going to do in his book Mein Kampf long before he actually did anything.

Now that Russia has made their first very calculated and bold move into Georgia, this virtually guarantees some various actions within the European Union.

  1. First, look for some kind of negotiated settlement between Russia and Germany over Georgia. This settlement will lead to further negotiations and a future pact between Russia and Germany will be likely. The imperialist EU and the revived imperialist Russia will probably feel sufficiently confident to turn their attentions toward the Islamic nations to the south.
  2. Putin’s recent actions in the Caucasus will push Russia and Germany to settle the dividing line between them. With Islamic pressure from the south, the EU and Russia will have to settle their differences over the Ukraine, Kosovo, and the Caucasus so that they won’t be distracted when they need to deal with the Islamic nations. Russia’s actions in Georgia will force these discussions between Russia and Germany to be done sooner rather than later.
  3. Look for Russia’s empowered persona to hasten the search within the EU for a powerful and influential EU President and EU Foreign Minister. At this time the EU has no comparable counterpart to Putin and they are going to have to remedy this.

There are several influential personalities that have a positive history with Putin…all happen to be German. They are:

  1. Ex-German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder
  2. Germany’s current Vice Chancellor and Minister for Foreign Affairs Frank-Walter Steinmeier
  3. Ex-Prime Minister of Bavaria Edmund Stoiber

Germany’s current Chancellor Angela Merkel has a well-known “cool” relationship with Putin so this undoubtedly keeps her off the short list.

Things to Watch:

  • EU Presidency and Prime Minister Positions
  • Vladimir Putin
  • The Caucasus Region
  • The Balkan Region
  • The Ukraine Region
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